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From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs


The article articulates why achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2027 is plausible, based on the trends in deep learning, compute power, algorithmic efficiencies, and 'unhobbling' gains. GPT-4's progress is leveraged to project future capabilities, suggesting another leap in model intelligence could occur in the following years, potentially leading to AGI.

  • GPT-4 demonstrated high-school level cognitive abilities.
  • AGI plausibility is based on consistent AI trendlines.
  • GPT models have been rapidly improving over the years.
  • AI's progress may accelerate further by 2027.
  • AI could automate most cognitive jobs soon.